Sunday, May 4, 2008

How to Fudge the Data: Shrinking the Sample

An important part of any study is in its ability to be applied on a large scale. Nobody can argue that it is thus important to take as large of a sample as possible in order to give any kind of accurate representation. The hype regarding global warming fails on this simple, yet important, aspect in their cries about global climate change.

Al Gore, the poster child for global warming, claimed in his movie "The Inconvenient Truth" that,

"If you look at the ten hottest years ever measured, they all occurred in the last fourteen years, and the hottest of all was 2005."

Although 2005 was a very hot year (this was the year Sin City came out after all), in terms of global temperature over all of measured history, Gore is sorely mistaken. In fact, the ten hottest years ever measured happened thousands of years ago and 2005 was not one of them, according to Professor Richard A. Muller and Gordon J. Macdonald in their book Ice Ages and Astronomical Causes. So how is Gore able to make such a ridiculous claim? Simple, he shrunk the sample.

It's true that in the last 125 years temperatures have been slowly wandering upwards, but 125 years is insignificantly small in comparison to the history of Earth or even in comparison to human history. In reality there have been several periods of time where the Earth has been significantly hotter than it is now, and in the past 11 thousand years there have been at least 5 spikes where temperatures got hotter than they are now or were in 2005. I'd say that eleven thousand years is a pretty significant sample size, wouldn't you?

For more information, visit this site. Chill out!

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